I used wRC+ for this study to follow up on Breen’s indication that a player’s entire approach changes the stat encompasses all of a player’s offensive contributions (as opposed to just power) and adjusts for park-and-league factors. Basically, it removes singles from a player’s slugging percentage. Isolated power seemed like an obvious statistic for this work (Breen used it as well), as it shows specifically the number of extra bases a player averages per at-bat. For my study, I looked at three numbers - isolated power (ISO), wRC+ and HR/FB rate - in order to see any changes. I slightly deviated from Breen’s study by using more of a power-production focus. I found Breen’s article to be especially interesting, considering he looked at a player’s entire slash line (as opposed to just their power numbers) because he felt their entire approach would change as a result of the Derby.

With all this in mind, I decided to conduct my own study with more up-to-date information. Yet, Dave Cameron wrote in the Wall Street Journal in 2009 that the curse is real, with one player in each of the past four years (2005-2008) who hit at least 10 home runs in the event went on to see their power disappear in the second half. Most studies have concluded that the Derby itself does not impact players. I wouldn't think that few swings in one night would affect you.'Ī few studies have been done on the Home Run Derby “curse,” including this one by J.P. Someone once told me it takes 30 days for muscle memory to become habit. As Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard said, you can make adjustments. Ironically, before the Derby that year, Inge himself was quoted as saying ( via ESPN): He hit zero homers during the event in Busch Stadium that year, finishing in last. Inge’s Derby performance wasn’t much to write home about, either. Inge hit just six home runs (40 wRC+) in the second half, after swatting 21 bombs (128 wRC+) in the first half. This notably occurred in 2009, when Brandon Inge struggled down the stretch. This theory is used to explain the drop-offs in performance from many sluggers. MLB finalized the 2017 Home Run Derby field on Monday: Charlie Blackmon, Mike Moustakas, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Cody Bellinger, Justin Bour and Miguel Sano all announced their intentions to participate in the event, which will take place on Monday, July 10 in Marlins Park.Įvery year, with Derby talk comes the idea that the event “hurts players’ swings” and could potentially be the reason why participants tend to have bad second halves to their seasons.

Home run derby participants